This week is too much: Obama gets inaugurated tomorrow, Lost comes back on Wednesdsay, and the Oscar nominations get announced on Thursday. I guess I just won’t leave the house until Friday afternoon. 

Speaking of the Oscars… a lot of the nominees are foregone conclusions by now, but that doesn’t stop me from fantasizing about dark horses. That’s why I’ve created a dream ballot for the “big five” categories. 

After the jump, I’ll reveal my fantasy selections for Best Supporting Actor and Actress. Let me know what you think of my choices, and let me know who you’d nominate this year. (And don’t forget to read part two and part three of the ballot!)

NOTE: I’m only nominating performances I’ve actually seen.

Best Supporting  Actor

—

Josh Brolin, Milk — Other than Sean Penn, he seems like Milk’s surest bet for a nomination, and he deserves it. He could have turned unhinged assassin/politician Dan White into a monster, but instead he gave us a scared and captivating outcast lost in a world that’s changing all around him.

Robert Downey, Jr., Tropic Thunder —  I liked this movie a lot more than I thought I would, and Downey epitomizes why: As an Australian actor who dyes his skin to play a black American soldier, he’s edgy without being tasteless and clever without being phony.

James Franco, Milk — I’m worried this film is going to get overlooked on Thursday, but on my dream ballot, it’s a star. Franco’s performance as Scott Smith, Harvey Milk’s first long-term boyfriend, is so subtle that it barely seems like acting. (My review.) 

Bill Irwin, Rachel Getting Married — It’s been overlooked by every awards group, but Irwin’s performance in this movie has stayed with me since I reviewed it in October. He communicates loneliness with almost no movement, like  that awful stillness when he finds his dead son’s favorite plate, and he’s brave enough to show us how his character’s desperate love for his family also makes him weak. Totally moving.

Eddie Marsan, Happy-Go-Lucky – Sally Hawkins’ doggedly cheerful Poppy would make less sense if Marsan didn’t play her twitchy, paranoid inverse. Yet while Scott is ranting on about hating everything, Marsan shows us the man’s fear. Deep inside, he’s worried that everyone’s going to hate him.  (My review.) 

What? No Heath Ledger in “The Dark Knight?” No, you guys. To my mind, it’s the most overrated performance of the year. Yes, I thought it was creepy, but I also found it exhausting and one-dimensional. That’s got as much to do with the script and the directing as with Ledger, but I still don’t think he deserves an Oscar (even though he’ll probably win.) (Review.)  

My Dream Winner:  Bill Irwin 

—

Best Supporting Actress

Kathy Bates, Revolutionary Road — A bold claim? Perhaps. But as usual, Bates is flawless here. All that repressed heartbreak and disappointment, spilling forth as busybody anxiety, is devastating. (Review.) 

Viola Davis, Doubt — Sometimes actors should get nominated for every prize in sight. That’s the case here. That one moment? Where she’s crying so much that snot is running down her face? That alone deserves a prize. (Trailer Scaler.) 

Amy Poehler, Baby Mama –  Remember when Joan Cusack got nominated for In & Out? That was awesome because she was getting noticed for being funny. Comedy is notoriously overlooked come Oscar-time, which is why Robert Downey, Jr.’s inevitable nomination will be such a welcome aberration. But why not spread the love to Poehler, who kicked so much ass as a trashy, scheming baby machine? Months later, I can still remember how she delivered the line, “I’m sorry I farted in your purse.”

Marisa Tomei, The Wrestler — Tomei deserves more film work, because every time she gets a good role, she does something like this with it: She shows us how Pam the Stripper constantly schemes to protect herself, which is why it’s so moving when she shows up at the The Ram’s final wrestling match, her face beaming with unabashed concern and affection. (Review.) 

Misty Upham, Frozen River — This tiny, brilliant film will be on DVD soon, so why not do yourself a favor and rent it? As an outcast Native American who helps smuggle immigrants into the U.S., Upham is so quietly furious that I kept watching her, waiting for her to blow.

What? No Kate Winslet in “The Reader?” No, but the only reason is that Kate Winslet is the lead actress in that movie, no matter what its publicists are saying. 

My Dream Winner — Viola Davis