Well, the leaves are changing and moms are putting the final touches on Halloween costumes, so you know that that means – it’s time to get started predicting how this year’s Oscar race will shape up based on what’s come out so far. It’s never too early, right? So buckle up and enjoy the ride.
Talk of buckling up makes me think first of the recently-released Amelia, the Mira Nair-helmed biopic starring Hilary Swank as aviatrix Earhart. Early buzz had this as an early Oscar frontrunner; the film’s middling reviews and sluggish box office suggest otherwise. Even in a sea of ten Best Picture nominees, I don’t see this making the cut – but given the lack of competition for Best Actress, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Swank get a third nomination. (Neither would I — Mark)
Who else stands a chance so far in the Best Actress race? Early on, Abbie Cornish seemed like a certainty for Bright Star, but the heat seems to have cooled off in favor of An Education’s Carey Mulligan to receive the ingénue-with-an-accent slot. La Streep’s ebullient turn as Julia Child seems a good possibility for nomination #16, though I don’t see it as a lock. After catching Cheri on DVD, I have to say that mon amour Michelle Pfeiffer delivers a nuanced, touching, vanity-free performance, but I doubt the film has enough fans to see anything more than a Golden Globe nod in the comedy category.
The Lead Actor category looks even thinner so far, though I’m sure top contenders will emerge over the next two months. Matt Damon could get nominated for The Informant! – look at the De Niro-esque weight gain! – but the film’s levity seems to knock it out of contention. Sam Rockwell could earn a long-overdue first nomination for Moon, but the movie may be too obscure for voters. Superstars Johnny Depp and Brad Pitt starred in the likely Best Picture candidates, Public Enemies and Inglourious Basterds, respectively, but I don’t see them making the cut either. I do see two less-known actors, also in Best Picture contenders, Jeremy Renner of The Hurt Locker and Michael Stuhlbarg of A Serious Man, having a chance to make it, however. Joaquin Phoenix has given one of his best performances in Two Lovers, but his recent off-screen antics—going rogue as a bearded musician fed up with Hollywood—may have pissed too many people off, stunt or not.
Phoenix’s co-star, Gwyneth Paltrow, was also quite good in Lovers, but I haven’t heard anyone bandying her name about in the Supporting Actress race. Same goes for Amy Adams, wonderful in three 2009 movies: Julie, Night at the Museum: Battle of the Smithsonian (also playing Amelia Earhart), and Sunshine Cleaning (though that performance is actually a lead role). So who does that leave? Thus far, I can only see Basterds’ Mélanie Laurent getting in there.
I definitely expect her tormenting co-star, Christoph Waltz, hot off of his win at Cannes, to score a nod for Best Supporting Actor, but again, I think his other category-mates have yet to emerge. I’d love to see Watchmen’s Jackie Earle Haley score a second nod as Rorschach.
As for the newly-expanded Best Picture categories, there are plenty of possibilities. In addition to the movies I’ve called out above, Julie, Star Trek, Up, and Where the Wild Things Are all have a shot so far. Meanwhile, the documentary race is also heating up, with Anvil, Every Little Step, Tyson, and Chris Rock’s Good Hair all viable possibilities.
Of course, all of these predictions are early and subject to change based on what’s to come. In fact, I predict a shakeup to come with next week’s release of Precious.
So what do you guys think? Have I left misjudged or overlooked anyone from the first ten months of the year? Couples Retreat, maybe? (That’s the second reference to Couples Retreat on The Critical Condition this week! Is that secretly our favorite movie? — Mark)
16 responses so far ↓
1 thedownpayment // Oct 28, 2009 at 1:04 pm
duplicity should be nominated for julia roberts, clive owen, tony gilroy all around. very underrated. smart and sexy. plus timely what with its tale of high stakes corporate espionage and buffoonery coming off of goldman, jp morgan et al.
2 ferretrick // Oct 28, 2009 at 1:34 pm
When is Heath Ledger’s final movie supposed to finally be released? Because if it comes out in time, you know he will get a posthumous nomination.
3 Doug Strassler // Oct 28, 2009 at 1:37 pm
Mark, I haven’t seen Couples Retreat, so if I secretly love it, maybe I’m keeping the secret from myself. Should I see it?
I have a personal dark horse prediction for Best Actress. Should I share it now or wait till my November forecast?
4 Doug Strassler // Oct 28, 2009 at 1:49 pm
ferretrick, I think the movie is due to come out this fall. Personally, I’d be surprised if he got another nomination, but who knows. He really would be the new James Dean in that case. Are you pro or con such a nomination?
5 Antonio Minino // Oct 28, 2009 at 3:42 pm
I haven’t seen these movies, I’ve become a Netflix Instant Watch addict…it’s been hard to get myself to a movie theatre, I know… I work in theatre and always agree with Doug’s theatre reviews, and I trust and believe everything he says!
So two thumbs up for these October Predictions.
6 Mark Blankenship // Oct 28, 2009 at 4:04 pm
Doug! What is this dark horse?
And also, @downpayment, I can definitely get behind acting noms (or at least consideration) for the Duplicity cast. I didn’t love the script, but the performances were awesome.
7 Doug Strassler // Oct 28, 2009 at 4:11 pm
I still just can’t get behind Duplicity. Great ensemble on paper but none of the pieces clicked for me.
And the dark horse iiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiis: Robin Wright Penn for The Private Lives of Pippa Lee. She’s excellent, she’s overdue, and there’s a possibility Sean Penn would be the one to present the award.
8 Ripley // Oct 28, 2009 at 5:08 pm
Zombieland, I maintain, should get something. Best Picture and/or Best Actor (Woody Harrelson).
How unjust is it that, at best, it’ll only get a cinematogrophy nod?
9 Laura Mc. // Oct 28, 2009 at 11:51 pm
Christoph Waltz gets to be famous in my world for the rest of his life.
He should pick up whatever magic dust Robert DeNiro is supposed to have. HIS ROLES SUCK.. so yeah, Waltz can fix it.
He can fix everything.
10 ferretrick // Oct 29, 2009 at 6:26 am
Doug, I’m con him getting the nom simply BECAUSE he died tragically young, which is exactly what the Oscars would do. But certainly he had great talent and the new movie may merit a nom for him anyway, in which case, its a moot point.
11 Doug Strassler // Oct 29, 2009 at 10:01 am
I think we feel the same way about him, ferretrick, and yet I’m not (yet) concerned he’ll get back-to-back awards. But stay tuned.
Laura Mc., I like the way you think!
12 Collin H // Oct 29, 2009 at 1:27 pm
I think we can all agree that Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen was a pretty terrible movie in most regards, but it needs to be one of the front runners in the Visual Effects category. It’s CGI is hands down the most complex and detailed work ILM has ever done and it’s integration with the numerous practical effects shots in the movie is flawless.
Of course, the first Transformer movie should have got the Visual Effects Oscar in 2007 too, but instead they gave it to The Golden Compass.
Nothing says pushing the boundaries of visual effects to a new level like making a polar bear talk.
13 Mark Blankenship // Oct 29, 2009 at 1:39 pm
Hey Collin… But do you think any movie stands a chance against the effects in “Avatar?”
14 Collin H // Oct 29, 2009 at 2:09 pm
Oh, Avatar is almost definitely going to win. From what I can tell, Avatar looks like its going to be mostly animated with real actors inserted into the film, rather than the other way around. It’s been done before in movies like Sky Captain and the World of Tomorrow, but never at the scale or complexity that we’re going to get in Avatar. Plus, its got James Cameron behind the wheel which raises the prestige and level of the film up to what I assume are “academy standards.”
However, the art direction for Avatar might hold it back. The bright colors and Lisa Frank-ness of the character designs might make it come across like too much of a video game or a Trapper Keeper. It’s hard to tell how well the design style is going to come across until the movie actually comes out.
Even though I don’t think it will win (and I’m not certain that it even should), the work put into making 2′ to 100′ tall robots feel solid and real in Revenge of the Fallen needs to be recognized for the technical achievement that it is.
15 Tricia // Oct 29, 2009 at 3:10 pm
I hope Hilary Swank doesn’t win… I think she gets too much credit.
16 Stacy // Oct 29, 2009 at 5:08 pm
Doug, you should see Couples Retreat for no other reason than it does NOT have Leslie Mann in it. that is my new standard for watching movies and so far it has not led me astray.
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