By DOUG STRASSLER
Some people mark the end of the year by doing last-minute holiday shopping. Others make holiday and travel plans. I, my friends, count down the last movie releases and first critics’ awards of the year. I’m sure I’m not alone in that, though, right? Right? (Well, yesterday, I was anxiously refreshing the National Board of Review’s website to see when they would post their award announcement… — Mark)
All of which is to say I’ve continued to keep my nose to the Oscar grindstone in the hopes of continuing my forecast, based partly on movies that have opened since my last writing and partly on movies set to open in the next couple of weeks.
Not many additional Best Actor hopefuls have arisen in the last month save for The Road’s Viggo Mortensen, though the movie’s middling reception is weakening its Oscar prospects. On the other hand, a whole cavalcade of past winners loom as contenders for movies about to be released: Michael Caine (Is Anybody There?), George Clooney (Up In the Air), Daniel Day-Lewis (Nine), Morgan Freeman (Invictus), even Robert De Niro in Everybody’s Fine, though that last one seems a bit of a stretch.
Other potential first-time nominees include the long overdue Colin Firth in A Single Man and longer-overdue Christopher Plummer as Leo Tolstoy in The Last Station. The brass behind Crazy Heart have pulled a Million Dollar Baby and shoved it into December after mulling a release next year, based on the buzz for star Jeff Bridges. I’ve made my adoration for him no secret at The Critical Condition; can this finally be his year? (And could the Academy make my day and honor Bridges and Michelle Pfeiffer, as a 20-year Fabulous Baker Boys reunion? Okay, enough e-dreaming.)
Carey Mulligan continues to stand out as the Best Actress frontrunner for An Education, with only one major contender having emerged: Gabourey Sidibe for her heartbreaking work in Precious. She’s got Oprah (not to mention Madea maven Tyler Perry) behind her, which was enough to clinch the gold for Halle Berry and Jamie Foxx in the past. Last time, I thought Robin Wright (The Private Lives of Pippa Lee) could be this year’s dark horse, but her lack of campaigning will likely impede her chances. Similarly, foreign film leads Penelope Cruz (Broken Embraces) and Catalina Saavedra (The Maid) lack momentum. Other actresses with a shot include Marion Cotillard (Nine), Helen Mirren (The Last Station) and Saoirse Ronan (The Lovely Bones).
There’s not much new to report in the Supporting Actor race, which could bode well for Woody Harrelson (2012 – I mean, The Messenger!), Alfred Molina (An Education), and Stanley Tucci (The Lovely Bones). In contrast, there’s a plethora of possibilities in the Supporting Actress category for once, thanks in large part to the Nine ladies, including Cruz, Judi Dench, Nicole Kidman, and Kate Hudson, who’s campaigning hardest of all. Air could also provide multiple nominees in the form of Vera Farmiga and Anna Kendrick, while Samantha Morton (Messenger), already a two-time nominee, could find that the third time is the charm.
I actually think one of the most exciting potential contests lies in this category: a showdown between Mo’Nique, the frontrunner for Precious, and Julianne Moore (A Single Man). Moore, one of the most critically acclaimed actresses of her generation has always been a bridesmaid when it comes to actual industry awards. If it comes to down to a veteran versus a comedienne in a breakthrough dramatic role, which way will the pendulum swing? And if Bridges and Moore both get nominated, what are the chances these Big Lebowski co-stars will do White Russian shots together at the Kodak Theater?
Additional Best Picture possibilities include Heart, Invictus, Bones, Nine, Precious, Air, and, yes, even James Cameron’s Avatar. But are there five movies, let alone ten, this year that you guys think merit the big prize? Partly due as a result of the writer’s strike, partly due to the fickle finger of fate, there have been some good movies this year, but few superlative ones. (Again, I have yet to see all of the movies named in this column.) Also, pay attention to next week’s Golden Globe nominees. Now that the Oscars will nominate ten Best Pictures, their Musical/Comedy nominees will hold more sway than ever before.
The best picture winners of the last four years had all been released by this time of year. Also, in each of the last four years, three of the four acting award winners’ films had been released. Can we say that we’ve seen enough deserving movies and performances right now this year? I’m not so sure. Instead of making sure more deserving work gets acknowledged, has the Academy’s Best Picture expansion created a mere free-for-all?
15 responses so far ↓
1 InfoMofo // Dec 4, 2009 at 1:29 pm
You don’t like Christoph Waltz for supporting?
2 Doug Strassler // Dec 4, 2009 at 1:38 pm
Quite the opposite, actually; I loved him! He’s currently my frontrunner — I talked about him in my October Oscar forecast.
3 Destiny // Dec 4, 2009 at 3:07 pm
Hi Doug,
Glad to have you back. I still haven’t seen enough of these movies to get a real grasp on the Oscar climate. I’m hoping that the 10 Oscar nominees for Best Picture will open doors for foreign films (Broken Embraces), documentaries (Food, Inc), and animated films (Up), but we’ll have to see.
4 Doug Strassler // Dec 4, 2009 at 3:55 pm
Hey Destiny — nice to be missed! I think the expansion *should* open the door for all of that, but I’m not sure it will. I think Up will make it in, but Food, Inc. will likely get stuck in the documentary category (it’s currently a finalist). And Broken Embraces will have to put all its eggs in the Best Picture basket, since Spain has backed a different foreign film.
Also, my good friends are in Food, Inc. for a split second. Props to Derek and Lacey for being so organic!
5 InfoMofo // Dec 4, 2009 at 4:07 pm
I fail at clicking links.
6 Doug Strassler // Dec 4, 2009 at 4:08 pm
Maybe, InfoMofo, but you succeed at knowing good performances.
7 Mark Blankenship // Dec 4, 2009 at 10:55 pm
Hey Doug!
If I may, I’d like to offer a few polite challenges to your post.
(1) Do you really believe that Oprah Winfrey is the reason Halle Berry and Jamie Foxx won Oscars? As in, do you think Oprah specifically nabbed them their trophies, or are you using her to represent the larger climate of campaigning and politics?
(2) I feel like it’s pretty easy to say that this year hasn’t given us ten worthy films, and I feel like every year someone tosses out a comment about how there’s nothing good on the screens anymore.
My question is this… what do you mean when you ask if we’ve “seen enough deserving movies and performances this year?” What qualifies as “deserving?” Are you asking if we’ve seen ten pictures that fill that slightly mythical idea of a “Best Picture Contender,” which to me means serious drama with a tinge of uplift? Or do you mean have we seen ten pictures that we personally believe merit serious consideration as being excellent enough to make a “best of the year” list?
On the first score, maybe we haven’t seen ten “Oscar Darlings,” if that’s the criteria we’re using. But I don’t think that’s a black mark against the entire year.
On the second score… yes. Yes, I do think we’ve seen plenty of exceptional films already this year. “Inglourious Basterds,” “Precious,” “Up,” “Up in the Air,” “The Hurt Locker,” “Where the Wild Things Are,” and “Star Trek” all leap to mind as movies that could withstand scrutiny in any season. Then there are movies that I personally think are less uniformly successful—”(500) Days of Summer,” “The Stoning of Soraya M.,” “Coraline,” “The Messenger”—but that still have enough going for them to be considered “best of the year” without being embarrassments.
Really, I can’t think of a recent year that didn’t deliver several excellent films. Granted, I can think of many Oscar ceremonies that didn’t nominate or award many excellent films, but that’s not the same thing.
So is it really time to get cynical?
8 Doug // Dec 6, 2009 at 11:40 am
Hey Mark,
While it’s certainly within me to get cynical, that wasn’t what I intended for this column. I merely was hoping to gauge others’ thoughts on their filmgoing experiences this year. If they have seen a bunch of movies that have excited them and they think are Oscar-worthy, I’d love to hear about it. Maybe it will even cause me to re-think some of the movies I’ve seen so far this year. And I’m also curious to hear others’ feelings on just how they think the 10-best picture change will play out.
Every movie you just named is at least very good — none would be a blight on the Academy, like, say, Old Dogs, even if I might not label them all Best Picture-worthy from an objective standpoint. I don’t think it’s been a bad year for movies, but based on what I’ve seen so far, I just haven’t been nearly as excited or passionate about the movies and performances as I have in many years past — yet. The optimist in me trumps the cynic and hopes that will change.
(Also, I have no strict definition of what makes for an Oscar-meriting movie — in the past I’ve championed movies like Alien, Back to the Future, Die Hard, and Heathers as being totally deserving.)
As for Oprah, she’s just one example of a celebrity with major pull, who, when she guns for a movie or performer, usually campaigns successfully for them. I think she has gone and will go a long way toward helping Precious this year.
So my overarching question for all readers is, what do you think about the movies you’ve seen so far this year? How many have you adored? How many do you think stand the test of time? I’m willing to go back and re-consider anything.
9 Blair Singer // Dec 6, 2009 at 3:18 pm
I want in on this Oscar action– I gotta go with Doug here on this one. There AREN’T ten movies that deserve Best Picture nominations. Star Trek, Mark? Really? And for my money, Where the Wild Things Are was a huge disappointment. Where was the magic in a bunch of kvetching monsters? I think of all the movies you list, Mark, the only one that might stand the test of time is The Hurt Locker as a movie which speaks to our times.
Thanks to Doug for raising the question of whether we see enough deserving work. I say that we don’t. The Oscars are the biggest marketing tool for the Motion Picture Industry.
It’s kind of like owning a race track, owning all the horses, and then saying to the general public that the races aren’t fixed.
10 Doug Strassler // Dec 7, 2009 at 8:22 am
Good analogy, Blair! Marketing tool or not, the Oscars are still important; they help preserve the legacy of one our most valuable art forms. It’s for that reason that I write about them so much. I want the truly great movies to be recognized for posterity; not just movies that were “good enough” to fill a slot.
11 Stacy // Dec 7, 2009 at 9:20 pm
I totally agree with Doug and Blair. Holding movies to high standards and sadly finding them lacking is not cynical. Let’s not forget that us regular people pay a ridiculous ticket price for the pleasure of spending a few hours of our limited free time enjoying a real good flick. it’s important to me that i don’t spend my hard-earned money and fleeting free time watching “Funny People”. and by that i mean an over-hyped, inconsistent mess of a movie that doesn’t know what it wants to be and leaves me wondering what on earth just happened. i want a film that makes me think, surprises me a little and makes me wish i was as good at SOMETHING as the actors at the screen are at bringing characters to life. BEST PICTURE nominees should have every single aspect of the art in complete harmony – plot, effects, acting, writing, music – everything. and that doesn’t necessarily mean everyone has to love it. there are many times i didn’t enjoy a movie but i respected how it was made.
but back to the point and forgive my tangent, but in recent years it seemed difficult to even find FIVE movies that could be the best (I’m sorry, but 2007 just didn’t work for me and do NOT get me started on 2003.) whereas, not so very long ago in the 1980s, there were years when i can’t imagine how they ever chose a winner. (1982 was a amazing year for movies.) so with the apparent down swing in quality and apparent focus on making money, i am doubtful that there are TEN movies this year that could be the best.
and while we’re at it – being the best implies that these films are of an elite class. it’s not as much as an “honor to be nominated” when they start letting everyone in.
12 Doug // Dec 8, 2009 at 1:46 am
Tnagent away, Stacy! I couldn’t agree with you more. I’d love to hear more about your beef in 2003 — not a fan of Mystic River? Seabiscuit?
And you’ve read my mind about 1982 — in fact, maybe I should make it my next Best Picture expansion.
13 Doug // Dec 8, 2009 at 2:34 am
Also, I thought I’d throw in a few more contenders I’d initially tossed out last week:
Best Actress: Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side
Best Supporting Actor: Matt Damon, The Informant!
Best Supporting Actress: Susan Sarandon, The Lovely Bones
14 Tricia // Dec 8, 2009 at 11:41 am
On the point about Oprah, I would agree that her power to influence results is immeasurable. While not the reason someone like Halle Berry won an Oscar, it certainly didn’t hurt to have someone as powerful as Oprah pulling for her at every stage.
Oprah could successfully make something as mundane as socks the best new thing. So it’s no surprise that if she backs an already quality film, that film and the actors within have a better shot of winning some major awards.
15 Doug Strassler // Dec 8, 2009 at 1:19 pm
Well put, Tricia. I’m going to make a movie and call it “Socks! The Movie” then send for O’s consideration.
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