The eligibility period for the 53rd Annual Grammy Awards ends on September 30, with nominations announced on December 1.  My guess is that we’ve already heard everything that’s going to get nominated, so with my trademark insouciance, I’m going to predict some of the nominees right now! Hahahaha!

Aren’t I impish?

First, I’ll tackle Best New Artist. (And I’ll slightly modify Roommate Joe’s approach to  predicting the Emmy nominees.)

Definitely Happening

* Drake

After its rulebook made Lady Gaga inelgibile for this award last year, the National Academy of Recording Arts and Sciences (NARAS) changed its game. Now, artists who have been nominated for Grammys (but not won) in previous years are still eligible for this award in the year that they rise to prominence.

That sounds a little contradictory—shouldn’t your rise to prominence be the year that you get your first Grammy nomination?—but it allows for common sense judgment calls. Yes, Gaga was nominated for Best Dance Recording in 2008, because that’s when “Just Dance” was tearing up the clubs, but obviously, 2009 was the year she became a big deal. Similarly, Drake made a few waves before last September, but this has really been the year that’s he taken off.

And what a take-off it’s been. He’s had a squlllion hit singles, a popular EP, and a million-selling album. Better still, he’s a great rapper/singer. There’s no way the Grammys will overlook him.

* Bruno Mars

Sure, Bruno Mars has only released one solo single, but it’s “Just the Way You Are,” which is one of the best records of the year.Plus, Mars provided the memorable hooks for B.o.B.’s “Nothin’ on You” and Travie McCoy’s “Billionaire,” and he co-wrote and co-produced Cee Lo’s delicious “Fuck You.”

In other words, this guy is the total package: He can write, sing, and produce songs that are melodic enough to appeal to older listeners and hip enough to appeal to kids. If he doesn’t get a Best New Artist nomination, then I will be shocked.

Almost certainly happening

* B.o.B.

I’ve written about B.o.B. several times this year, and I’m still  as enthusiastic about him as I was back in February. His latest top ten hit, “Magic,” is just as excellent as his previous smashes “Nothin’ On You” and “Airplanes,” and I think the Academy will honor him that. It’s not easy to create music that feels familiar without being stale.

It’s possible, though, that Best New Artist won’t have room for three men who make hip-hop/R&B/pop music, and if someone has to go,  then it’s most likely B.o.B., if only because he hasn’t had a hit without a featured artist. That could make some people feel he needs too much help to stand out.

* Mumford & Sons

In the last few weeks, Mumford & Sons’ album Sigh No More, which I praised earlier this year, has stormed into the top twenty, suggesting that the people are finally waking up to the band’s excellence. Since this awakening coincides with the mailing of Grammy ballots, I’m wagering the band will get the indie rock slot in this category. However, they may be a little too indie to make the cut.

* Janelle Monae

Monae’s album The ArchAndroid is one of the best R&B collections in recent memor. She could appeal to both R&B traditionalists and people who wish that Lauryn Hill wasn’t crazy. And like Drake, Monae is a previous Grammy nominee (for a single from her 2007 EP) She may get lost in the pack, simply because she didn’t have a smash hit, but I doubt it.

Possibly happening

* La Roux

They’ve only had one hit (“Bulletproof”), but their super-cool, 80s-throwback sound could push them into the race.

* Jerrod Niemann OR The Band Perry

There’s almost always a country artist in this category, and these two are the likeliest candidates.

Niemann had a number one hit with “Lover, Lover,” a fantastic, roots-rock stomper. However, it’s a remake of Sonia Dada’s “You Don’t Treat Me No Good,” and breaking through with someone else’s song may be a liability.

On the other hand, The Band Perry hasn’t quite had a smash, but they’ve had two hits (“Hip to My Heart” and “If I Die Young”) that they wrote themselves. Plus, “If I Die Young” is fascinating: It’s got a beautiful melody, but it’s about a teenage girl who seems to be praying for death. That contradiction makes the track stand out on country radio, and it could get Grammy’s attention as well. Frankly, I think The Band Perry really deserves the nomination—”If I Die Young” has become one of my favorite songs of the year—so I’m hoping they can overcome their low profile.

Not Happening

*Ke$ha

Yes, Ke$ha’s been ubiquitous this year, and yes, she turned out “My Love Is Your Drug,” which is a fantastic song. But her other songs are just too polarizing. I mean, “TiK ToK” is an earworm, but it’s not good, and since it celebrates wanton debauchery, it’s practically designed to make parents shriek in horror. Meanwhile, Ke$ha’s public persona makes her seem like a trashy moron, not a Grammy-worthy artist. Since the Academy didn’t nominate Katy Perry in this category, I really don’t think they’re going to nominate Drunk Katy Perry.