The eligibility period for the 53rd Annual Grammy Awards ends on September 30, with nominations announced on December 1.  My guess is that we’ve already heard everything that’s going to get nominated, so with my trademark insouciance, I’m going to predict some of the nominees right now! Hahahaha!

Aren’t I impish?

Today, I’ll soothsay for Record and Song of the Year, but don’t miss my early predictions for Best New Artist.

NOTE: Record of the Year is an award for a song’s performer(s) and producer(s), and Song of the Year is an award for the songwriter(s).

Definitely Happening: Record AND Song of the Year

* “Need You Now” by Lady Antebellum

Mark my words: Lady Antebellum’s hit will not only be nominated for both Record and Song of the Year, but also will win at least one of those awards. This song has everything Grammy loves: It’s well-written, it uses real instruments and unprocessed vocals, it doesn’t rely on dance beats, and it doesn’t have any rapping in it. Plus, it was a legitimate crossover smash, reaching well outside the country music niche, which means lots of voters have heard it. And while it’s not necessarily my favorite song—I find Lady Antebellum kind of bland—I certainly recognize that it’s good.

* “Bad Romance” by Lady Gaga

There’s a reason the video for “Bad Romance” has become the most-viewed clip in YouTube’s history. Well… okay. Two reasons. One is that the video is great, but the other is that the song itself is so freaking phenomenal. I mean, right? This may be her best single to date. If nothing else, it doesn’t sound like anything else on the radio, thanks to its complicated structure and thundering bass, and since Gaga was nominated for Album, Record, and Song of the Year last year, I assume that the National Academy of Recording Arts and Sciences (NARAS) will tip its hat to her again. Once you’re in the Grammy club, you stay in, even if your work is questionable (hello, Sting, Paul McCartney, and Sheryl Crow!) So for a worthy track like “Bad Romance,” the nominations are a no-brainer. Look for recognition in both categories.

Almost Certainly Happening (Record and Song of the Year)

* “Hey Soul Sister” by Train

Gotta love a comeback, right? Train won two Grammys for its previous big hit, 2001′s “Drops of Jupiter,” so don’t be surprised if they get on the list for this unavoidable earworm.

Almost Certainly Happening (Record of the Year)

* “Empire State of Mind” by Jay-Z and Alicia Keys

Only one rap song, the sample-free “Jesus Walks,” has even been nominated for Song of the Year, so don’t expect any hip-hop in the songwriters’ category. (But that makes sense… samples were written by other people.)

However, Record of the Year almost always has a rap ditty (though none has ever won the trophy.) This time, my money’s on “Empire State of Mind.” At its core, it’s a singalong, up-with-America anthem, and who are we to resist that?

I can’t, however, list this song as a definite nominee because of a possible dark horse that I’ll mention below.

Almost Certainly Happening (Song of the Year)

* Some random track by Corinne Bailey Ray

In 2008, Ray got a Song of the Year nomination for “Like a Star.” You know! “Like A Star!” That song that sounds like… oh.. the one with the bridge and the…

Okay. No one has heard “Like a Star,” so the SOTY nomination only underscores how much the Academy looooves Corinne Bailey Ray. Since her new album The Sea deals with the aftermath of her husband’s unexpected death, they’ll probably feel duty-bound to notice her again. Besides, it won’t be a Grammy season unless some random-ass track gets nominated in a major category. Do you know what won Song of the Year in 2006 ? ”Sometimes You Can’t Make It On Your Own” by U2. What? Exactly.

Possibly Happening (Record and Song of the Year)

* “Just the Way You Are” by Bruno Mars

It’s more likely to turn up in Song of the Year, since Bruno Mars’ big thing is that he’s a singer-songwriter in hip-hop clothes, but “Just the Way You Are” could sail into both categories.

* “Bulletproof” by La Roux

It’s a great track that sounds like something from the 80s… which means it can appeal to people who like it now and people who would have liked it then.

Possibly Happening (Record of the Year)

* “Love the Way You Lie” by Eminem and Rihanna

This could be the dark horse that knocks Jay-Z and Alicia Keys out of the race. (I don’t think there’s room in this category for two rap songs.) Both tracks feature A-list rappers and massive hooks performed by A-list divas. If the Academy decides it prefers dark tales of domestic violence—or if it simply prefers the song that’s still on the radio—then Em and RiRi could take the nomination.

* “California Gurls” by Katy Perry

I don’t love this song—or even like it, really—but since Katy Perry (a) wrote it herself and (b) cannot be escaped at the moment, she may well appear on the shortlist.

Possibly Happening (Song of the Year)

* “Stuck Like Glue” by Sugarland

Even when they don’t get nominated for Record of the Year, country songs do well in this category, since the genre is still considered a songwriter’s playground. Since 2005, “Before He Cheats,” “Jesus, Take the Wheel,” “Bless This Broken Road,” “Not Ready to Make Nice,” “Live Like You Were Dying,” and “You Belong With Me” have all made it onto this list, and of those, only “Not Ready to Make Nice” and “You Belong With Me” were also tapped for Record of the Year.

I’m guessing that “Need You Now” will feel “bigger than country,” leaving room for another, more genre-confined track to be nominated. And if another Nashville record is going to make it, then it ought to be “Stuck Like Glue,” which is sunny, sassy, and catchy as hell. Plus, it’s by Sugarland, whom a lot of people in the industry seem to love and who already have multiple Grammys at home.

Not Happening (Record and Song of the Year)

* “Mine” by Taylor Swift

Yes, she won Album of the Year last year, and she’s still a pop culture phenomenon. However, “Mine” sounds so much like “Love Story” that I can’t tell them apart on the radio, and Lady Antebellum has just as much country crossover attention these days. Therfore, Swift will probably have to content herself with some genre-specific nominations… and the fact that she’s one of the best-selling artists in contemporary music.